Where are you seeing that? I just checked the actual numbers, overall two days were off by 2, all the other days were off by 1. Are you looking at a particular park?
5:52am on 2/21/26 by
PrincipalTinker
Could be referring to individual parks. A couple of days the difference at MK or HS has been very different but I also think it's not just the waiting that's higher than expected but parks feel crowded from reports
7:12am on 2/21/26 by
youcanfly
@youcanfly Exactly, yes thank you! It's the individual parks. Also, it isn't just about the attraction times it's the crowds while maneuvering while in the park.
8:04am on 2/21/26 by
Pumpkinprincess11
I'm sure TP blog will explain eventually, but I think it's harder than ever to predict. For a few recent years, the estimates were mostly too high w lower attendance, so they adjusted. Now the crowds (for whatever reason) seem to have returned somewhat.
8:15am on 2/21/26 by
TumbleMonkeys
Agree with @tumble. TP just recently redid the predictions and nearly every prediction came down a notch or two. They've been overestimating for a while. But maybe they shouldn't have instituted the change this week!
8:24am on 2/21/26 by
evamarie320
I too will be interested in future blog posts. Although TP crowd calendars never measure the "crowd" or how busy it feels in the park.
9:40am on 2/21/26 by
PrincipalTinker
You would think they would know about long holiday weekend, Mardi Gras week and winter breaks and take all this into effect? I was totally surprised to see 5's in there for this week. No way. We had 2 CL 10 days a couple days ago (marathon, too)
10:02am on 2/21/26 by
cdlla
Years, not days. Sorry
10:03am on 2/21/26 by
cdlla
Same @cdlla!
10:06am on 2/21/26 by
KLuck
I'm sure they know about the holidays. That's part of the formula the TP computer uses. But the new formula might still need some tweaking.
10:10am on 2/21/26 by
evamarie320
Agree with @cdlla. There were quite a few times where it would state a 5 minute wait and I'd time and submit a 20 min wait. It was pretty consistent and I would re-optimize after every attraction because we were getting so far behind. We ended up 1/2
3:24pm on 2/21/26 by
Pumpkinprincess11
Dropping 2-3 attractions to get back on track. I would think with all the holidays and the data TP had that it would be more accurate not differ by 3 or 4 numbers. (2/2)
3:25pm on 2/21/26 by
Pumpkinprincess11
For most of 2024-25, for various reasons, crowds were way down. So if they went off the last few years of data, and this year was more "normal," they would have under predicted.
5:16pm on 2/21/26 by
TumbleMonkeys
It's been a pretty turbulent 6 years in the vacation trend prediction game!
5:19pm on 2/21/26 by
TumbleMonkeys
I just got back from Las Vegas and it was really, really busy with visitors there to celebrate the 2026 Chinese New Year of the Fire Horse.
7:09pm on 2/21/26 by
Elaine5715
@pumpkin, thank you for submitting wait times! With the new model, your wait times would really help others.
7:36pm on 2/21/26 by
PrincipalTinker
I also noticed that they were letting through way more standby people than in previous years. I was stopped at every single ride and told to wait while 20+ standby were waived through. In all the years we have been going that had never consistently
8:12pm on 2/21/26 by
Pumpkinprincess11